Market Brief

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Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

內地減息的啓示 Short 三月24600 Put

Tuesday, March 3, 2015 Views3813

內地週末減息, 期指於週一高開(24,930點), 及後輾轉回落, 9:45-9:50AM 於24,800點附近徘徊, 及後急插至全日低位24,587點後, 短線超賣, 回升至24,803點, 較上週五升9點
收市.

投資者可嘗試就週一走勢作以下解讀:

1. 期指受減息消息刺激高開, 更曾高見24,987點

2. 指數短線升幅過度, 市場普遍視再次減息是基於經濟數據欠佳等因素, 期指從高位回落

3. 較難判斷24,800點附近是否''合理''的調整期指價格, 因滙豐公佈的2月中國製造業PMI終值高於預期, 期指借勢急跌, 更曾跌至24,587點

投資者宜注意:

1. 內地再次減息, 貨幣政策似向進一步寬鬆邁進, 而這次減息或基於經濟欠佳, 利好利淡因素並存, 暫不宜太過樂觀

2. 人行或正在進行類似 ''Bernanke Put'' (註 a) 或 ''央行 Put'' (註 b) 的角色,
不過針對的是內地經濟, 當內地經濟不穩時, 將以寬鬆貨幣政策或其它經濟政策嘗試維持經濟或GDP 在一定水平

在以上前提下, 且不論大市會否上升, 至少指數於3月大跌機會不大.

在相對較寬鬆的貨幣政策下, 個別版塊將受惠, 而有關版塊已於去年12月及15年1月的市況評論及Phillip Channel數次提及, 在此不贅.

於指數方面, 投資者可考慮 Short 3月 24,600 行使價 Put Option, 如期權金在300點以上, 可以是不錯的選擇.



個人而言, 目前3月所開好倉亦較2月時多, 惟在希臘債務問題倘未完全解決前, 亦有同時
 Long 一定張數的較遠價外 Put Option, 以管理突發事件風險; 並將就倉位作適時調整.

(註 a) (註 b) ''Bernanke Put'' 及 ''央行 Put'' 泛指市場認為前聯儲局主席伯南克及部份其它央行於股票市場下跌至一定幅度時, 會推出一定政策穩住金融市場, 似為好倉投資者作了 Long
Put 風險管理安排般 (以上僅市場預期, 應該未曾有重要財金官員表示會在每次大市大跌時推出政策救市; 資產價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕. 投資者如要控制風險, 應從控制投資金
額/ 自行 Long Put 等方法就手, 而不應指望虛無飄渺, 似有還無的所謂 ''央行
Put'' 作風險管理.)
 

註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.

註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 最大潛在損失是無限.


以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.

 

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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