Market Brief

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Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
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3925 9237

稍作觀望, 還是在希臘公投前先作部署?

Friday, July 3, 2015 Views5726

希臘將在週日公投, 觀乎市場數據, 似乎市場並不認為公投結果將對大市有重大不利影響. 可能是市場認為公投議題反對多於贊成票機會不大. 但如公投真的否決援助方案, 對後市的負面影響其實較難量化.

 

內地股市近日下跌, 但內地政府亦陸續出招救市, 在相對封閉的資本本場, 政府對市場的影響力不容忽視. 在一輪急跌後A股會否重拾升軌?

 

如對A股中線偏向樂觀, 投資者可考慮先作部署. 但同時面對希臘週日的不明朗因素, 或以 Long 指數相關性較高的 ETF Call, 風險管理上較為得宜.

 

如手上有大量持股, 在面對希債風險, Long Put 似是一個選擇. 但目前要付出期權金較高.

投資者可另行考慮以下做法(以2/7 收市價為參考價計):

 

Short 7月行使價 26,400 Put (e.g. 3張)......611點/張

Long 7月行使價 25,400 Put (e.g. 8張)......250點/張

 

投資者只要付約167點期權金(每套), 如大市在未來1星期內急跌1,000點以上, 在期權特性(Delta 及其它相關因素下) 這組合每套或追回大市一半的跌幅(e.g. 500點) 甚至更多. 以上組合利潤大於指數跌幅亦非無可能 (視乎指數是否大跌急跌).

 

以結算日 30/7計, 以上組合最大損失是在25,400結算, 每套損失 3,167點.

[(26,400點-25,400點)差價1,000點/張, 共3張: 3,000點 + 最初付出期權金 167點]

如指數在26,400點或以上結算, 每套損失只是167點.

 

要應對希臘公投可能出現機率較少的黑天鵝負面事件, 以上組合或值得考慮.

 

 

註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.

 

註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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