Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
基金經理

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

跌完見底? 還是由希臘引爆最後炸彈??

Friday, July 10, 2015 Views7937

8/7 港股急跌, 幸9/7 升回一部份, 看好投資者不致太傷. 大市是否跌完見底? 在這話題前請先看看前文提及風險管理策略的效果.

 

有關策略內容:

http://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/research-and-analysis/market-brief/?id=8789

http://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/research-and-analysis/market-brief/?id=8800

 

期權組合策略簡述:

Short 7月行使價 26,400 Put 3張

Long 7月行使價 25,400 Put 8張

(大權 $50/點, 細權 $10/點)

 期權組合效果:

 

 

雖然 8/7 大市在收市前從低位急升, 但以收市價計, 有關期權組合亦值 逾8,600點.

如能在指數最低位平倉, 參看有關期權的最高價, 期權組合值 11,300多點.

在波動市及有關期權已成為極價內期權, 組合內的2個期權的最高價或在不同時段成交, 為減少有關影響, 可參考有關期權的價內值, 期權組合亦值 10,400多點. (以上數值只會計少, 不會計多, 因 Long Put 相對較貼價, 溢價較 Short Put 高)

 

部份讀者可能認為6/7文章的效果不夠吸引, 以上組合在大市跌近千點時, 只能賺到約1,000點的利潤, 如同時持有股票, 這組合只能追回持有股票的損失(假設所持股票走勢及幅度和大市相若).

 

實際上這組合的威力在8/7才真正顯現. 7月2號/6號至 7月8號, 大市跌2,xxx-3,xxx點, 但以上組合利潤基本上在8,000點, 乃至 10,000點以上. 期權組合的利潤是大市跌幅的2倍幾 – 3倍幾, 如果用開倉時付出的期權金計算, 2/7及6/7 開倉成本只是167點及364點, 和約1萬點的利潤比較, 升幅的百份比是多少, 投資者可自行計算.

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如有運用以上方法的投資者, 即使所持有股票下跌, 在這輪跌市中可能不單不用輸錢, 更有可能嬴大錢. (如以上組合開倉後大市上升呢? 以結算日計, 最大損失不過是開倉時所付的一百幾點或三百幾點吧) 但有關風險其實並未完結, 星期日將是希臘的所謂死線, 如希臘提出的方案不被歐洲多國接納, 甚至被踼出歐元區, 大市有很大機會無秩序地下跌. 持有股票投資者可能已在8/7大市急跌時把以上期權組合平倉止膁, 手上再無持有對沖工具. 再者, 經過一輪大跌後, 以上組合效用某方面亦有所減弱. 如投資者持有好倉 (e.g. 股票), 而未有安排任何對沖工具, 可考慮 Long 一些指數或股票的 Put Option, 以免如希臘真的爆煲時, 出現難以預計的損失.

 

有關以上期權組合的詳細成本, 潛在損失及利潤詳情, 請參看3/7的文章.

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註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.

 

註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.

 以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.

 

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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