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Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
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期權策略及大市分析 2015-07-24

Friday, July 24, 2015 Views3324

筆者昨晚下筆時, 金價(10月黃金期貨) 約在USD 1,097. 個人認為在 USD 1,090 或以上可小注沽金, 原因如下:

 

1. 早前希臘債務危機時, 金價並無明顯上升, 傳統的''避險''功用近年並不明顯

2. 在可見未來, 通脹未見得會大幅上升

3. 近月USD 1,200 似有阻力

 

數月前曾指出部份市場人仕指出的新金開採成本: 約USD 1,100, 不能視為金價的強力支持位, 因在理論上金價亦有不同原因可跌穿 USD 1,100.

 

觀乎金價近日走勢, 金價短線有機會見USD 1,050 以下. 如 USD 1,090 以上沽金, 潛在 USD 40或以上的回報, 還算可以. 如 Short 多於1張, 更可考慮保留部份淡倉看金價會否下試 USD 1,000 以下.

.

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17/7 的市況評論指出因引伸波幅較高, 可考慮 Short 兩邊 Call Put, e.g. 7月26,000 Call 及 24,000 Put, 隨引伸波幅下跌及時間值耗損, 至23/7 有關期權金只剩 38點及14點, 在平淡市況中也有一些利潤.

 

以下是 7/7-23/7 港版 ''恐慌指數'' VHS, 及期貨 和 約400點價外行使價的7月 Call Put 期權金參考, 已一定程度上減少了指數升跌對期權金的影響, 讀者可從中多少可看到 大市VHS, 和時間值對期權金的影響.

註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.

 

註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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