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黎健聰先生 (Keith Lai)
高級交易員

現任職輝立高級交易員,對投資股票、期貨、期權、商品、債券、基金交易經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
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黃金回調,買入黃金機會難逢

Monday, November 21, 2016 Views6709
黃金回調,買入黃金機會難逢
 
1)特朗普總統實施政策及意大利修憲公投的不確定性,將使環球金融市場不穩定
 
2)買黃金旺季在11月至 2月
 
3)預期美國受通漲影響進入加息週期作抗通漲資產
 
4)預計預計對歐、日貨幣進入零息及負利率而產生對貨幣的不信任風險
 
5)南海地原政治升温
 
以上五點也令黃金資產升值可能。
 
故令黃金價值自2011年9月高位 $1920.74下跌及在2013年4月跌穿 $1535後正式進入熊市下跌後,
 
直至2015年12月3日跌至 $1046.18,高位下跌 $874.56後,在12月至2月金融市場轉差情況,引致投資者對黃金價值的需求上升及作避險,
 
而急速反彈,在今年2月5日升穿250天牛熊分界線及升穿短期下跌通道頂部$1230至$1283後回調至$1230,進入牛市後,在六月尾因金融市場受英脫歐公投後使金價大漲,
 
至2016年7月6日金價升至$1375.17見頂後金融市場穩定後及預期美國年尾加息使美元走強,使金價一直在調整,而在美國總統大選後,特朗普當選後金融市場穩步上揚,使市場風險胃
 
納增加,而使金價下跌。
 
本月金價已在11月11日回調跌穿$1245.14 (250天線)至今天跌至接近5月30日低位$1199.37及自2月升穿牛熊線後一直常回調在 $1205至$1210獲支持反彈,固今天跌至
 
$1205.55,可襯低吸納,短線本人預期在11月至2月金價進入需求旺季及金融市場資產價格上升,而意大利在12月4日進行公投日子越近,相信市場會再出現避險需求而使金價上升。
 
 
建議買入2017年2月紐約期金: 買入價$1210(由2015年12月低位$1046.18升至今年7月1375.17升幅回調的一半)
                                                            至$1199(在2016年5月低位的大支持位),分段襯低吸納。
 
止賺:$1245 (短線低位反彈至250天線),如能在二月前回升至$1281重回50天線重拾上升動力,長線可睇$1388 (2014年3月高位)
 
止蝕:$1168(以買入平均價$1204.5的3%)
 
價格資料來源:www.netdania.com
 
本人黎健聰為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。


 

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