The Report is produced in Chinese only.
地緣衝突加快全球汽車新能源化進程,自主品牌迎來機遇 2月28日起中東爆發地緣衝突,全球約20%石油供應所經的關鍵航運霍爾木茲海峽受到干擾,衝突呈現擴大態勢,市場對衝突持續、通道將長期受阻的預期升溫,國際油價處於高位震盪狀態,布倫特原油價格從每桶70美元飆升至100美元上方,一度逼近120美元。油價高企顯著放大了新能源汽車的使用成本優勢,推進了新能源車與油車價格平價,全球尤其是滲透率較低、油電平價格局較好的海外地區新能源車需求開始爆發。 機構的數據顯示,2026年3月份,全球共銷售170萬輛電動汽車,同比增長29%,環比增長40%。其中,歐洲15個主要歐盟及歐洲自由貿易聯盟市場的純電動乘用車(BEV)3月註冊量同比激增51%,單月註冊新車逾22.4萬輛,占全部新乘用車銷量的22%。3月澳大利亞新車總銷量為108,703輛,同比下滑2.6%,但純電汽車銷量逆市增長,3月銷量為15839輛,同比增長88.9%,占比14.6%,同比提升7.1pct。其他,如新西蘭、越南和泰國等能源價格漲幅顯著的國家,其電動汽車註冊量同比激增79%。 海外新能源車的增長,為中國自主品牌出海帶來機遇,比亞迪、吉利、奇瑞、長城等車企三月海外銷量均有顯著的同環比提升,3月,比亞迪、吉利、奇瑞、長城海外銷量分別同比增長64.45%/120.37%/69.09%/48.22%,環比增長 19.41%/34.10%/25.18%/10.47%,有力的抵消了國內銷量放緩。 我們認為,此次地緣衝突後,能源安全將成為國家戰略安全的重要環節,新能源將從傳統能源的補充選項躍升為保障國家能源安全的替代選項,有望推動全球新能源車滲透率提升。2025年國內新能源乘用車滲透率達54.0%,而海外新能源汽車滲透率僅為10.6%,提升潛力巨大。國內新能源車車企在技術、產業鏈、規模、成本等領域都具備極強競爭力,無論是出口還是本地化生產將迎來發展機遇,在全球市場取得更高市場份額是中長期大概率事件。 整車相關標的:比亞迪(1211.HK,002594.CH)、吉利汽車(175.HK)、上汽集團(600104.CH)、江淮汽車(600418.CH)、奇瑞汽車(9973.HK)、長城汽車(2333.HK,601633.CH)、蔚來(9866.HK)、零跑汽車(9863.HK)。 風險提示海外新能源車需求低於預期、海外新能源車進口政策變化、市場競爭加劇 |
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