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昔日報告:
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新能源汽車刹車收官,預計來年平穩增長

近期工信部公布2019年全年新能源汽車産銷數據:全年産銷分別完成124.2萬輛和120.6萬輛,同比分別下降2.3%和4.0%。其中純電動汽車生産完成102萬輛,同比增長3.4%;銷售完成97.2萬輛,同比下降1.2%;插電式混合動力汽車産銷分別完成22.0萬輛和23.2萬輛,同比分別下降22.5%和14.5%;燃料電池汽車産銷分別完成2833輛和2737輛,同比分別增長85.5%和79.2%。

這是中國從2009年開始推廣新能源汽車至今,首次出現年度銷量下滑。全年銷量也沒有達到下調之後150萬輛的原定目標,可以說是踩了刹車。主要原因是去年以來,受宏觀經濟壓力、國五排放車型降價銷售擠出效應、新能源汽車財政補貼大幅退坡等多重因素叠加影響所致。2019新能源補貼新政“過渡期”結束後,新能源車市從7月開始出現負增長。頭部企業如比亞迪,北汽新能源也未能幸免,其2019年累計新能源汽車銷量同比分別下滑7.39%, 4.69%,至22.95萬輛和15.06萬輛。

爲此,政府部門相關負責人已經表示,爲穩定市場預期,保障産業健康持續發展,2020年政府將推出一系列促進新能源汽車市場平穩健康發展的舉措,例如補貼退坡政策可能向後延長,便于給企業留出更多的緩衝時間;非財政補貼性的支持政策會儘快跟上,例如稅收支持政策,國家電網充電補貼政策;增加對新能源企業的新材料、新技術專項補貼、充換電設備普及補貼,以及加快老舊燃油車更新淘汰換購新能源汽車等鼓勵政策。

我們認爲,隨著特斯拉等國際車企在新能源汽車領域的布局加快、技術進步持續,配套措施不斷完善,新能源汽車市場將進入到性價比和供給推動下的戰國市場。擁有獨特技術和成本優勢的上游供應鏈將收益。我們建議重點關注寧德時代(300750.CH),贛鋒鋰業(002460.CH)。

撰稿: 章晶研究分析員
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