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汽車行業2026年將進入“穩量提質”新階段,關注“智能化”和“全球化”賽道 2025年回顧: 回顧2025年中國汽車市場,行業延續高景氣,國內/出口銷量均創歷史新高。全年汽車銷量達3440萬輛,同比增長9.4%。2025年國內銷量同比增長6.7%至2730.2萬輛。其中,新能源汽車表現尤為突出,銷量同比增長28.2%至1649.0萬輛,滲透率提升7.0個百分點至47.9%,國內新能源乘用車滲透率達54.0%(同比+8.7個百分點),商用車滲透率38.3%(同比+10.4個百分點)。出口方面,全年汽車出口709.8萬輛(同比+12.1%),首次突破700萬輛,新能源汽車出口占比36.8%(同比+14.9個百分點),成為出口增長核心動力。 政策端,以舊換新政策延續及新能源購置稅免征政策優化(延長至2027年底,減免上限提高)有效刺激內需,行業競爭格局加速集中,自主品牌乘用車市占率提升至69.5%,頭部車企如比亞迪、吉利、奇瑞等憑藉技術優勢和全球化佈局領跑市場。 2026年展望 展望2026年,我們預計汽車行業將進入“穩量提質”新階段,全年銷量微增1%至3475萬輛,新能源汽車銷量有望達1900萬輛(同比+15.2%),滲透率進一步提升至54.4%。 就汽車零部件行業而言,2026年預計將進入“技術深化+出海加速”新階段。智能化加速推動算力芯片、智能底盤、艙駕融合系統成為核心賽道,L3級自動駕駛商業化落地帶動高算力域控制器、激光雷達、線控制動需求激增。同時,零部件企業加速海外建廠,通過CKD/SKD模式深度綁定整車出口,形成“整車出海+零部件先行”的協同格局。建議關注國內汽車電子領域的頭部公司德賽西威(002920.CH),。此外,汽車產業鏈技術外溢至機器人,也將催生跨界投資機遇,模塑科技(000700.CH)有望受益。 |
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