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年年歲歲花相似,歲歲年年車不同

事件:2023年3月初,湖北省聯合多家車企推出了政企購車補貼。從2023年3月1日起到3月31日,只要在湖北購買特定品牌指定車型,上湖北牌照,就可以享受由車企和政府聯合提供的購車補貼。湖北省補貼主要覆蓋東風雪鐵龍、東風標緻、東風風神、東風日產等東風系品牌,優惠幅度在4萬元至9萬元不等,其中雪鐵龍C6中低配版本綜合優惠幅度最高,為9萬元,其中廠家補貼4.5萬元,政府補貼4.5萬元。

點評:今年以來,汽車刺激政策到期和國內經濟疲軟影響消費雙重打擊下,令到高基數(2300多萬輛)下增速放緩早已進入紅海市場的汽車行業承壓,而短期內消費者也因此持幣觀望,等待其他省份和廠家給出跟進促銷計劃,此外,年中將要實施的國六B排放標準也令部分車企壓力巨大。汽車經銷商和廠家的庫存預警指數持續增長,2022年底車聯協會發佈產銷GAP=庫存為210萬台,增長近三倍,部分合資車企庫存係數突破3.5。

我們認為,湖北省本輪降價主要是湖北政府幫助當地車企實現清理弱勢車型庫存,投入總預算大約2000萬元,並有著較嚴格的門檻,甚至此前部分車型的折讓幅度已與本輪補貼相當。從目前情況來看,跟進降價的車企也是庫存係數較高、同時面臨排放標準升級壓力較大的合資車企居多,且幅度和力度都有限。

我們認為,讓利、降價、促銷一直是國內車市不變的階段性主題,在競爭日益激烈的戰場上,只有提前把握住汽車發展大趨勢的車企才能脫穎而出,比如曾精准切入城市SUV的長城,通過收購全面提升技術的吉利,和厚積薄發引領國內新能源汽車狂潮的比亞迪。

對於未來的展望,我們預期,部分合資車企的衰落和自主品牌的強勢崛起是不可逆轉的。在降本壓力下,國內汽車供應鏈有望迎來國產替代的機遇,優質零部件公司有望進入黃金期。

個股上,我們推薦關注比亞迪(1211.HK),長城汽車(2333.HK)、吉利汽車(175.HK)、伯特利(603596.CH)、拓普集團(601689.CH),以及保隆科技(603197.CH)。

撰稿: 章晶研究分析員
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