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航空業價升量緩的模式將持續

近一周以來,內航股隨市場向下,甚至跌幅遠超大盤,幾乎抹去今年以來全部漲幅。究其原因主要因為內地航空股被人關注的幾大基本面因素:油價和人民幣匯率,似乎正在朝向不利的方向駛去。WTI油價今年以來已經累計上升18.3%,突破70美元大關,而人民幣兌美元匯率隨著貿易戰愈加的白熱化,近日出現急速貶值。市場擔憂未來航空公司的燃油成本開支將加重,人民幣貶值又會產生匯兌損失,盈利將會承壓。我們認為,市場對負面因素擔憂多度。

首先,油價雖然較40-50美元上漲較多,但相對於油價100多美元的高位還是有一段距離,且目前全球經濟狀況不可同日而語,油價能否持續攀升並維持高位尚有疑問。內地航企一定比例的燃油可在國內採購,並保留按比例收取乘客燃油附加費的對沖機制,料能覆蓋至少一半的油價上漲風險,而且近年國內航企持續引進新機型,淘汰老舊機型,新機型擁有更優良的燃油經濟性。

另一方面,內地航空公司近年來一直致力於降低美元負債比率,通過債務置換等手段已將美元負債比重從90%的高位降低至50%左右,對美元升值的風險敞口進一步縮小。

需求方面,2017 年 12月,民航局、發改委放開 5 家以上(含 5 家)承運人運營的內線票價,新增市場調節航線 306 條,超市場預期。東航和國航18年7月起京滬航線的機票價格將正式上調,我們預計越來越多的一線優質航線價格將開始上調,三大航潛在的盈利能力有望得到釋放,疊加18年夏秋航季運力的相對緊缺,航線時刻的調控,內地航空業的盈利水準將迎來一個明顯的小旺季。國航,東航和南航目前股價較年初高點已經回撤約40%,23%和43%,我們相信,航企股價大幅下修預示著成本方面的利空可能已被透支,忽略了需求端的利好因素,建議投資者可逢低吸納。

旨在降低社會物流成本的政策舉措中,與汽車行業相關的主要包括兩方面:降低稅費和簡政放權。前者比如從今年7月1日至2021年6月30日,對掛車減半徵收車輛購置稅,推動取消高速公路省界收費站;後者則包括取消4.5噸及以下普通貨運從業資格證和車輛營運證;今年底前,實現貨車年審、年檢和尾氣排放檢驗“三檢合一”,對貨運車輛推行跨省異地年檢,簡化手續。

周所周知,中國的物流成本較國外高出很多,效率較低,令到本國企業生產成本和國民生活成本高企,此次舉措將有益於降低全社會物流成本,物流行業的設備提供方,上游的重卡行業將首先受益於購置稅減半。平均一輛8萬元的掛車,用戶可節省4000元。我們建議關注港股上市的中國重汽(3808.HK)和濰柴動力(2338.HK)。

撰稿: 章晶研究分析員
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