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鼓勵購買汽車政策密集出臺,下半年整體銷量有望加速 為了刺激被疫情打擊的經濟大盤,汽車消費成為重要抓手,近兩周,從中央到地方,一攬子鼓勵汽車消費的政策措施密集落地,多層加碼,加力穩住汽車消費市場。 從中央政府層面:5月31日,財政部、稅務總局發佈《關於減征部分乘用車車輛購置稅的公告》,對購置日期在2022年6月1日至2022年12月31日期間內且單車價格(不含增值稅)不超過30萬元的2.0升及以下排量乘用車,減半徵收車輛購置稅。同時,工信部出臺《關於開展2022新能源汽車下鄉活動的通知》,共涉及26家車企共69款車型,覆蓋面相較2021年進一步擴大(2021年涉及18個品牌的52款車型)。 從地方政府層面:包括上海、北京、廣州、深圳等超過20個省市政府都出臺了相應汽車刺激政策方案,平均單車補貼5千元,最高2萬元,部分重點城市還增加了購車指標。 我們認為,此輪汽車消費刺激政策力度空前,超過預期,反映政府對汽車行業的極大支持。從排量看,此前兩輪刺激政策(2009年和2015年),僅針對1.6L及以下車型,而此次政策惠及到了銷量占比97%的2.0L及以下車型,且在價格上規定,不含稅價格不超過30萬,對應於含稅價格為34萬,基本覆蓋了超過90%購車需求。預計購置稅徵收減半的政策有望拉動今年整車銷售超200萬輛、汽車消費超3000-3500億元,下半年燃油车销量有望迎来一轮加速。 目前2.0L及以下燃油車銷量占比較重的自主品牌為吉利汽車(95%),長安汽車(90%),長城汽車(87%),上汽通用五菱(58%),上汽乘用車(79%),奇瑞汽車(85%),廣汽乘用車(100%);合資品牌為上汽大眾(95%),一汽大眾(95%),廣汽本田(99%)等;豪華車品牌為華晨寶馬(93%),北京賓士(98%)等。另外,隨著各地專門針對新能源購車補貼政策的陸續出臺,需求供給形成有效共振,新能源乘用車銷量有望保持高增長,利好比亞迪、新勢力、長安、長城等擁有較強新產品週期的整車廠。 個股上,我們推薦關注比亞迪(1211.HK),長城汽車(2333.HK)、吉利汽車(175.HK)、廣汽集團(2238.HK)、長安汽車(000625.CH),以及中升控股(881.HK)、永達汽車(3669.HK)、廣匯寶信(1293.HK)豪華車經銷商。 |
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