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房地產區域調控政策出臺,地產股新年喜迎開門紅

事件:

近日,蘭州、南京、合肥等地出臺一系列調整房地產調控政策:蘭州取消西固區、九州開發區、高坪偏遠區域的住房限購政策。南京調整人才落戶政策,允許研究生以上學歷及40歲以下的本科學歷人才,以及持高級工及以上職業資格證書的技術、技能型人才先落戶再就業。合肥市國土資源局和市物價局表示,商品房應由開發商自行定價,且2016年11月之前出讓地塊不限價。

評論:

第一,因城因地,精細調控。我們認為,蘭州當前取消部分區域的限購政策,是房地產大政方針“因城因地施政,精細化調控”下的一次具體實踐,可以看成是2018年房地產調控政策的一個縮影。正由於該區域整體庫存仍較高,但其主城區樓市較熱,所以在部分區域取消限購的同時, 主城區仍實施限購銷售政策。其次,人才引進引起政策邊際鬆動。地方政府以直接和定向的人才引進政策為突破口,試探性鬆動調控房地產,政策邊際信號明顯。我們預計,局部放鬆城市將增多,一二線城市限價也有望試探放鬆,但目前低庫存下很難全面政策放鬆。第三,投資低增速,銷售下行期。我們認為房屋新開工與銷售的滯後相關性的規律仍然存在,主要由於房企的現金流變化仍是投資決策的決定性因素。另一方面,房地產板塊整體負債率仍處在歷史高位,企業償債壓力或在地產下行週期中體現更為明顯,並最終將向上游影響至投資增速。第四,流動性收緊。2018 年第一周,監管層不斷發佈一系列新規,旨在進一步標準化各類金融機構開展的業務,預計以防範金融系統性風險的去杠杆化可能導致整體流動性收緊,而銀行面對額度趨緊以及價格上漲伴隨的更高風險將可能要求更高的貸款利率。

展望2018 年,我們認為整體上國有開發商比民營開發商更安全,區域上看好高階城市土地多的企業,並認為開發物業和持有物業並重的開發商更具有抗風險能力。建議關注保利地產,招商蛇口,華潤置地,龍湖地產和遠洋集團。

撰稿: 周霖研究分析員
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+852 2277 6515

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