Summary
International crude oil price stayed at high level in the third quarter of 2008. Its peak reached USD147/barrel in July 2008 and the average WTI spot price was USD118/barrel in the third quarter of 2008. This factor boosted up the revenue of CNOOC Limited. In the third quarter of 2008, the average realized price of crude oil and natural gas were USD106.94/barrel and USD3.83/mcf respectively, their prices rose YoY 58.7% and 11.7% respectively.
Besides the increase in price, the production volume also increased with an impressive amount. Production of crude oil reached 430,729 barrels/day and natural gas reached 679 mmcf/day, rose 15.4% and 14.1% respectively. Their increase in percentage is outstanding. Compared with PetroChina and Sinopec, their increases in crude oil were 2.8% and 2.1% respectively and their increases in natural gas were 16.3% and 2.2% respectively.
New projects came on stream to boost up production
Wenchang oilfields and platform B of Penglai 19-3 phase II have started production in the third quarter of 2008. Wenchang oilfields contribute about 14,000 barrels of crude oil per day while Penglai 19-3 oilfield is currently the largest offshore oilfield in China.
For the exploration, the results are spectacular also. CNOOC Limited made four major discoveries. Three discoveries are independent discoveries and located in offshore China, namely Bozhong 29-5, Bozhong 35-2 and Bozhong 29-4S. And the other one is Mila located in Indonesia. Also, the company managed to drill 11 exploration wells in the third quarter of 2008, 7 of which are appraisals and the rest of them are wildcats. Of the drilled wells, 5 were located in Jinzhou 25-1 structure.
Due to the discoveries and launching of new projects, the production of crude oil and gas reached 549,589 BOE/day in the third quarter of 2008, rose 15.2% over the same period last year. With this increasing trend, CNOOC Limited will most likely reach their production target of 195-199 million BOE, which was set in the beginning of 2008.
Capital expenditure
The international crude oil prices have dropped more than 50% since July 2008, oil companies are less willing to spend their capital to invest in new projects. In spite of this, CNOOC Limited does not cut its capital expenditure plan and will spend the amount they estimate in the beginning of 2008. For nine months ended 2008, the capex has reached 66.8% of total budget. The capex target will be met as the capex is growing quickly in the third quarter, as well as the management does not change its goal despite the oil prices dropped.
Recent corrections of oil price
Since January 2003, there have been four major corrections for the spot price of WTI. Average duration is about 3 months and the longest duration is more than 5 months.
When we compare the plunge from USD147/barrel in July with the other 4 corrections, until now, the duration does not exceed 5 months. However, the correction amount is far more enough now. If the oil price drops further, we do not exclude the possibility that OPEC will further decrease their oil production. Given the weak economy, it is less likely that the oil price will soar like few months before. We estimate the oil price will fluctuate below USD100/barrel in short term.
Peer comparison
Risk factors
Decline in oil price significantly
Government policy
Economic recession which leads to decrease in demand of oil
Cost inflation
Delay in any major projects
Valuation
Although low oil price is not favorable to CNOOC Limited, the company is in healthy financial position. This provides many opportunities for the company to acquire other oilfield assets to enrich its oil reserve during this economic slowdown. When compared with its peers, the cost is relatively low and production amount is rising.
Therefore, we set our 2009 target PE for CNOOC Limited to be 7.2x. We reiterate our BUY rating on CNOOC Limited and our target price for CNOOC Limited is HK$8.03.
Company Description
CNOOC Limited is a company with upstream operations, focusing on exploration and production of crude oil and gas. Its parent company, China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC), holds 65% interest of CNOOC Limited. Its main operations are in offshore China. The rest of the businesses are in Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Nigeria and Singapore.
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