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股票期權部 (Options)
輝立証券

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美國今年內加息預期高企,可部署地產股看淡式跨價認購期權組合

Tuesday, October 25, 2016 Views1607

近來,美國加息時機成為了市況波動其中一個因素。據最新利率期貨顯示,市場預期下星期議息加息機會只有一成七,而十二月份加息機會則達到近七成一,反映市場普遍認為今年內仍會加息一次。在今年中開始立場由鷹派轉為鴿派的聖路易斯聯儲銀行行長布拉德表示,十二月份加息可能性最大,但亦表明聯儲局不存在加息的緊迫性。而明年有投票權的芝加哥聯儲銀行行長埃文斯表示,美國經濟表現不錯,對通脹上升持樂觀態度,指目前至明年年底美國加息3次最為合適,並提出希望聯儲局加息以便經濟衰退時存在減息空間。若投資者今年內有加息機會而大市或會受壓,可考慮部署息息相關的本地地產股股票期權組合。

 

新鴻基地產(16.HK)在50天線上有支持,在$115水平附近橫行。按照股票分析程式Metastock預測,新鴻基地產(16.HK)未來較大機率橫行於$105至$120水平,有輕微下降的趨勢。若投資者認為本地地產股或會因美國加息受壓,可考慮看淡跨價認購期權組合。

 

首先,沽出12月份$120行使價之認購期權,上日結算價為$1.25 (股價約為$115),即每手$1,250期權金,參考按金為$5,601,Delta為0.29,引伸波幅為14.7。同時購入12月份$122.50行使價之認購期權鎖定最大的潛在損失,上日結算價為$0.78,Delta為0.19,引伸波幅為15.2。此組合為看淡跨價認購組合,假設到期日或之前未被行使,潛在最大利潤為$0.47,而股價向上突破之最大損失鎖定為$2.50。

 

若客戶申請對沖戶口(Hedge Account),此組合參考按金要求更可降至$1,311,使資金更靈活運用。

 

對沖戶口(Hedge Account)詳情請按此連結﹕

http://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/product-and-service/stock_options/#hedge-account

 

如欲了解更多股票期權策略及教學,請按此連結觀看教學影片﹕http://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/education-center/video-tutorials?cid=41

在此提醒投資者,最近市況十分波動,投資者應預備足夠資金應付按金變動及實貨交收風險,或設適當止蝕位置,及早平倉避免更多損失。

Risk disclosure statement and disclaimers of Trading Futures and Options
The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or options is substantial.  In some circumstances, you may sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds.  Placing contingent orders, such as “stop-loss” or: stop-limit” orders, will not necessarily avoid loss.  Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.  There is a possibility that any stop-loss order may be cancelled by a futures exchange due to various reasons including where orders are ‘out of price limits’ during a fluctuating market.  You should closely monitor your orders, as we may be unable to contact you in the event of cancellation.  You may be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds.  If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated.  You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account.  You should therefore study and understand futures contracts and options before you trade and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in the light of your own financial position and investment objectives.  If you trade options you should inform yourself of exercise and expiration procedures and your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiry. You should study carefully the Disclosure Statements of Local Futures on our website

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