Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

港股將會重現2007年還是2011年的走勢?

Tuesday, July 28, 2015 Views5912

讀者可參看以下兩幅圖, 個人倒是對跌市有較大戒心, 擔心在未來數月內大市會下跌 3,000點或以上(以25,000點計). 原因如下:

 

(1)

歐洲環境不佳

希臘方面, 即使債務危機最終有解決方案(目前仍在商討中), 但經希臘多番折騰, 歐元區的穩定性多少已受影響. 即使最終救緩方案通過, 或許有超短線刺激, 但要說歐元區經濟將穩定向好, 仍是長路漫漫.

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(2)

內地及香港的相關性

內地早前的''股災''及救市措施, 多少對市場化改革、企業利潤、憧憬中的''改革紅利'' 有所影響, 如內地政府保持救市的決定, 倒不虞內地股市會持續下跌, 最少機率會較細, 因為內地可以推出的措施仍有很多.

但在本港恆生指數中, 內地企業亦佔有一定數量, 即使有關企業股價在內地保持堅挺, 在資金流動性較高, 行政規管較少的香港, 有關股價表現不一定太好.

除H股因素外, 因本港資本市場的流動性, 以下第3點對港股影響亦較內地股市高.

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(3)

美國加息因素

美國將在今年加息, 幾乎已是市場共識. 而幾乎每次美元的加息期, 都會對新興市場(e.g. 亞洲區)構成影響. 雖然目前市場預期加息幅度溫和, 但結合以上第1, 2點, 港股下跌2-3千點或更多並非無可能. 最少, 目前看來, 能刺激港股大幅上升的因素不多.

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[投資策略]

基於以上三點, 暫不建議在目前持有太多好倉, 就持倉作合適風險管理/合適減持, 當是未雨綢繆, 亦是一個方法.

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因預計港股升幅有限, Short 8月 Call Option 亦是另一不錯選擇, e.g. Short 26,000 行使價 Call Option, 100點以上的期權金亦可考慮.

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港股以外, 個人對道指較有興趣, 如道指跌至17,000點以下, 可視乎當時市況決定是否吸納.

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另外, 沽日元, 黃金亦是選擇之一. 但前者最好等日元匯率較目前高一些才做, 後者的投機意味則較重.

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註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.

 

註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.

 

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