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醫藥流通:風物長宜放眼量

根據申萬行業分類,我們通過計算發現,從2017年初至今,A股醫藥商業公司股價平均漲幅-6.47%,H股-1.09%,在醫藥細分板塊中表現“墊底”。主要原因包括流通行業在過去一年面臨兩票制改革,商業龍頭的調撥業務受到影響,企業業績增速放緩;另外處方外流尚未大規模實現,對零售行業的利好還未兌現。我們認為,對醫藥流通行業的投資是一個較長期的過程。

2018年,預計在消化行業政策的影響後,下半年之後上市公司業績有望改善,屆時估值有望重構,而上半年有佈局機會。另外,長遠來看,隨著處方外流初步推進,行業集中度提升,零售行業和商業企業都將受益。建議投資者佈局全國或區域龍頭流通企業,重點推薦華潤醫藥、上海醫藥。

華潤醫藥的推薦邏輯是:全國性醫藥流通龍頭企業,在整合行業資源上有優勢;製藥業務不斷發展、產品組合不斷升級;旗下主要子公司(雙鶴、阿膠、三九)業績增長為母公司貢獻更多收益;集團的華潤鳳凰醫療擁有全國最大的醫院網路,有利於形成協同優勢。

上海醫藥方面:公司擁有華東最大的藥房網路,並且收購了康得樂中國,進一步拓展上游藥品資源,加速下游管道建設,拓展DTP藥房業務,培養業務新增長點。

撰稿: 周霖研究分析員
電話:
+852 2277 6515

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euruszhou@phillip.com.hk
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