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以舊換新政策加力擴容,利好汽車消費 簡介: 1月8日,國家發改委、財政部發佈《關於2025年加力擴圍實施大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新政策的通知》(以下簡稱《通知》),提出繼續向地方直接安排超長期特別國債資金,並擴大汽車報廢更新支持範圍。 此次汽車“以舊換新”政策,相較於上一年,補貼力度方面基本延續,新能源乘用車和2.0L及以下排量燃油乘用車繼續分別補貼2/1.5萬元。第二,規範置換補貼限額,置換購買新能源/燃油乘用車分別最高補貼1.5/1.3萬元,各省市可在限額下自由發揮。第三,提高新能源城市公交車及動力電池更新補貼標準:平均每輛車補貼額由6萬元提高至8萬元。據統計,24年國內汽車報廢更新超過290萬台,其中以舊換新政策刺激汽車銷量約190萬台,有效持續時間約4個月。25年政策的延續也有助於打消消費者觀望心態,持續時間長於2024年,汽車消費受益程度將超過2024年。 另外,此次政策擴大了報廢置換的補貼範圍,由國三車(11年6月30日前登記)拓展至12年6月30日前登記的汽油車和14年6月30日前登記的柴油車及其他燃油等國四燃油車,補貼標準不變。目前貨運市場在運營的國四車數量顯著高於國三車輛,補貼範圍擴大後,潛在更換新車需求相比2024年預計翻倍,將進一步拉動國內重卡行業回升。 資金來源方面,中央財政近日已經預下達2025年消費品以舊換新資金810億元。發改委表示,今年超長期特別國債用於支持“兩新”政策總規模比去年有大幅增加,具體數額將在全國兩會期間對外公佈。 個股上,我們建議關注積極推進車型高端化的新能源車企,比如比亞迪(1211.HK), 蔚來(9866.HK),理想(2015.HK),賽力斯(601127.HK),吉利汽車(175.HK),江淮汽車(600418.CH),小米(1810.HK),中國重汽(3808.HK),宇通客車(600066.CH);以及相關零部件公司濰柴動力(2338.HK)、星宇股份(601799.CH)、瑞鵠模具(002997.CH)、拓普集團(601689.CH)、銀輪股份(002126.CH)、愛柯迪(600933.CH)。 |
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