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集采擴圍降價顯著,藥企結構性分化加快 事件:爲推進國家組織藥品集中采購和使用試點(下稱“4+7”試點)改革,在國家醫保局等部門指導下,25個省份參與了擴圍(4個直轄市已參加“4+7”試點,福建和河北此前已跟進),9月24日擬中選結果産生。 點評:此次聯盟采購標志著“4+7”試點已經擴大範圍到全國,共有77家藥企參與,涉及金額46億元,平均中標價格較第一輪集采降幅達25%。細分來看,不同的競爭格局决定了降價幅度差异巨大:報價藥企少于3家的競爭較爲溫和,獨家/兩家供貨的,價格降幅較小甚至與上一輪持平;參與藥企3-5家的,價格降幅在20-30%,而超過3家的競爭相對慘烈,平均降幅達到42%,最低降幅超過50%。 從藥企層面來看,由于之前一輪集采中標企業以價換量效果顯著(中標藥物獲得數倍甚至幾十倍的銷量增長),部分企業(齊魯藥業)已從抵觸開始轉爲戰略性積極應對,而另一部分企業(如京新藥業,信立泰,恩華藥業等)預判失誤競標出局,股價應聲下跌。值得注意的是,外資藥企及印度藥企也開始逐步加入戰局,輝瑞、諾華已經分別成立普强、山德士,重啓在國內的普藥業務,印度瑞迪博士實驗室降價54%中標奧氮平口服常釋劑型。未來本土企業或將面臨更激烈的市場競爭,藥企結構性分化將更加明顯。投資標的上,我們建議關注華海藥業(600521.CH),石藥集團(1093.HK)。 |
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