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教育民促法送審稿出台,危中有機

在8月10日,中國司法部公佈「中華人民共和國民辦教育促進法實施條例(修訂草案)(送審稿)」,其中第十二條表示實施集團化辦學的,不得通過兼併收購、加盟連鎖、協議控制等方式控制非營利性民辦學校,另外,第四十五條亦有意加強對VIE架構的監管。

政策送審稿公佈後,不論經營幼稚園、小學、中學或高等教育的教育股亦錄得兩至三成的跌幅。然而,我們認為市場反應過度敏感。從多份政府公開文件中看出,政府主要是希望打壓那些打著非營利性之名但以營利性為實的學校,因此,政策對義務教育板塊的確有著重大打擊,由於義務教育只能選取非營利性;但對高等教育塊影響卻有限,因為高等院校可以選擇營利性。所以即使在最壞情況下,高等學校營運商也只需重新交稅,而且很大機會可享有稅務優惠及補交土地轉讓金便可。有鑑於此,我們認為這樣的跌幅對經營高等教育的公司來説是反應過度。

另外,民促法送審稿亦提出要加快獨立學院的剝離,此舉有助增加高等教育公司的收購標的。所以我們認為這次政策出台反而提供一個趁低吸納的機會,建議關注主要經營高等教育的公司,如﹕新高教(2001.HK)、中教控(839.HK)及希望教育(1765.HK)等,相信這類公司未來的政策風險會比經營義務教育的公司為較低。

撰稿: 李學滔研究分析員
電話:
+852 2277 6527

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terryli@phillip.com.hk
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