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如何看待美國發佈保護清潔能源供應鏈戰略?

2022年2月24日,美國能源部(DOE)首次發佈了《美國確保供應鏈安全,實現清潔能源轉型戰略》,確保能源安全和提高能源獨立性的計畫,從而確立美國在清潔能源製造和創新領域的全球領導者地位。《戰略》通過對能源行業13個領域的供應鏈開展深入評估,美國在此次發佈的戰略中明確提出將採取60多項行動,以提升供應鏈彈性與可靠性,刺激國內製造業發展,並創造就業機會。

拜登的施政方案中包括了2050年碳中和,2035年實現100%的"清潔"電力部門,2030年電動或混合動力車車型銷售占比過半等,涉及但不限於包括光伏風電設備、新能源電池、晶片等相關行業的上下游供應鏈,而這些主要集中在海外。疫情和一系列因素導致的供應鏈危機,為實現目標帶來了挑戰。此外,中國在許多科技領域的崛起也令美國感到威脅,2021年3月,美國白宮發佈《國家安全戰略中期指導方針》,指出中國是唯一有潛在綜合實力挑戰現有國際體制的“主要競爭者”。

《戰略》推出的舉措包括:投資超過70億美元用於支援電池領域的供應鏈和製造企業,投資80億美元用於在光伏領域扶持產能轉移和本土產能擴大,在中國控制的光伏、鈷、鋰電池、稀土、負極天然石墨方面將加大解決方案的推進。

我們認為,短期內中國在以上方面的實力難以撼動,製造業集群的完善程度,技術協同和人力成本短期內難以找到替代國。然而,在高端技術方面,美國實施的封鎖和打擊將對一部分企業產生不利影響。而那些在中國以外地區建立海外生產基地的企業,所受影響程度相對較輕,比如福耀玻璃(3606.HK)、敏實集團(425.HK),建議可以長期關注。

撰稿: 章晶研究分析員
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