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昔日報告:
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  11-03-2024 (星期一) 新一輪以舊換新政策或提振市場情緒
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新一輪以舊換新政策或提振市場情緒

事件:近日國務院常務會議召開,鼓勵汽車等消費品以舊換新,於3月1日通過《推動大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新行動方案》,推動新一輪大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新,開展汽車等消費品以舊換新,形成更新換代規模效應。

點評:此次汽車“以舊換新”政策是中央政府第二次提出,前次政策主要實施於2022-2023年,應對疫情造成行業供需失衡,主要集中在北京、上海、廣東、重慶、湖北、湖南、山東、海南等省份,單車補貼在2千元-1萬元不等,一線城市新能源車的補貼力度大於燃油車,甚至一些豪華車型也包括在補貼車型名單目錄中。

在中央強調後,地方政府接連推動以舊換新政策。3月2日,上海市發佈新一輪燃油車以舊換新補貼政策和新能源汽車置換政策,針對以舊換新購買燃油車和新能源車分別給予2800元和10000元購車補貼。預計二季度或將有更多中央及地方政府鼓勵以舊換新政策的細則出臺。目前我國汽車購買量中一半以上(大約1400萬台)已是家庭中第二台車甚或第三台車的購買,政策旨在刺激該等汽車消費升級人群的購買欲望。此類政策將更加利好中高端及豪華車型廠家的產品銷售,符合汽車消費升級的大趨勢。不過我們認為,該等政策對此前未實施以舊換新政策的非一線城市邊際刺激效應將更明顯。

據統計,我國乘用車中,國三及以下排放標準的車型保有量約1600萬輛,不排除後續繼續出臺類似商用車排放標準強制升級的更大力度政策。

個股上,我們建議關注積極推進車型高端化的新能源車企,比如比亞迪(1211.HK), 蔚來(9866.HK),賽力斯(601127.HK),吉利汽車(175.HK)。

撰稿: 章晶 研究分析員
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+86 21 51699400-103

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zhangjing@phillip.com.cn
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