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新成品油定價機制出臺,對油企巨頭有何影響?

2013年3月26日,國家發改委公佈了新的成品油定價機制,將調價週期縮短至10個工作日,取消4%的幅度限制,並適當調整掛靠的國際原油品種,取代自2009年5月以來的22個工作日以及4%變化率的老成品油定價機制。我們認為,新的成品油定價機制將使得成品油定價逐步走向市場化,對中石油和中石化這兩大煉油巨頭將構成極大利好。

近年來,國際原油價格總體呈現穩定上漲的趨勢,“兩桶油”的煉油業務成本不斷攀升。在過去的成品油定價機制下,成品油銷售價價往往在國際原油價格大幅波動的一個月後才會得到調整,使得“兩桶油” 的煉油業務每年均蒙受巨額虧損。無論是從供給需求層面還是貨幣層面或是政治地緣因素層面來看,國際原油價格持續上行將是大概率事件。隨著成品油價格調整週期縮短,成品油價格及時跟漲能迅速吸收成本上漲所帶來風險。

自去年下半年成品油調價週期縮短以來,“兩桶油”的煉油業務大幅減虧。從2012年年報來看,中石油的煉油業務經營虧損較2011年大幅減少了43.9%至336.72億元,中石化的煉油業務則大幅減虧213.2%至114億元。由於新定價機制的及時推出,“兩桶油”的業績在2013年將持續大幅改善,中石化的煉油業務有望扭虧為盈。

撰稿: 研究部
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