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衍生工具部 (Derivatives)
輝立期貨

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匯控收購待定 股價橫行

Monday, August 11, 2008 Views2022
匯控於八月四日公布零八年度上半年業績,公布業績前造好,以全日最高位收市,報$129.4,在港股收市後公布,轉盈為虧,股東應佔溢利下跌29.1%至77.22億元,主要受美國次按風暴影響,即使歐洲有強勁增長,仍未能填補北美業務之虧損,匯控第二日即出現下跌裂口。

匯控近年不斷以收購形式拓展業務,上年九月宣佈約以63.17億美元收購韓國第六大韓國外換銀行(KEB)51.02%股本,但須取得各個相關政府及監管當局批准,至今年七月,由於次按風暴及南韓經濟放緩,匯控申請重訂收購價,但至今仍未定案,除非收購價能調至合理水平,否則匯控難以突破去年九月$140水平。

從技巧分析上看,由七月二日至七月十八日,形成島形底,於七月廿一日出現一個較大$4上升裂口,至八月八日仍未跌穿$124,由於島形轉向圖只是一個較細的圖表形態,故股價短期內升跌不大,暫於橫行區,股價徘徊於$124 - $130。

上星期道指升三百多點,預料星期一(11/08)匯控(5)股價會上升,可沽出八月份135.00認購期權(call),合約代號為HKB135.00H8。
正股上星期五(08/08)收市價為$127.4,認購期權為$0.37,引伸波幅為23%,按金一手為$2,500。
匯控若於星期一造好,上望$128,沽出期權價約為$0.44,可收取期權金$176,收取之期權金可作填補按金之用。
止賺價為正股下跌至$124,此為短期支持位,而期權金亦差不多可盡收,回報率有7.6% [176/(2500-176)]。
若手持匯控正股,更可利用備兌策略,即以正股作為抵押,則不需存放按金,淨收期權金$176,回報率達100%。
止蝕價為正股上升至$137,此為行使價加1.5%自動行使,較少機會被行使。

補充一點,此期權的未平倉合約在上星期五(08/08)為7,711,較上日減少420張。數天前,從一報章中看到某篇以未平倉合約分析匯控的好淡動態,文中提到認沽期權數量多,即較多投資者看淡,若根據文中所述,這是否代表看好的投資者正逐步減少?為此,在這略為解釋未平倉合約的意思。
未平倉合約數量是指所有市場參與者所持有合約的長倉或淡倉總數的總和,單從數字上看,難分該數量是指好倉抑或是淡倉,因此,不能單從數量的多寡去判斷到底較多投資者看好還是看淡。由於期權可買入亦可沽出,與窩輪只可買入不同,看好就買入認購期權;看淡則沽出認購期權,未平倉合約可以是長倉總和,亦可以是短倉總和,因此不能被簡單分析。
就匯控135.00八月認購期權來說,自公布業積以來,未平倉合約開始減少,正股橫行,意味投資者止蝕平倉,股價整固中。

如有任何查詢,歡迎致電2277 6622期權部。

匯控一年日線圖

匯控一年日線圖

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