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昔日報告:
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AI“電荒”引爆燃機超級週期

全球AI算力需求呈指數級增長,根據預測資料,資料中心占全美電力消耗的比重將從2018年的2%一路攀升到2028年的10%以上,資料中心耗電量堪比中小城市,然而美國的電網基礎設施已經相當老舊,平均壽命高達35-40年,燃氣輪機因啟動快、供電穩定等優點便成為自建電源首選。

國際巨頭訂單激增,西門子能源2026年第一財季訂單額大增34%至176.09億歐元,使得積壓訂單達到創紀錄的1460億歐元;GEV 2025第四季訂單總額達222億美元,有機成長率高達65%。截至季末,公司積壓訂單金額較前一季增加150億美元,總額來到1500億美元的歷史高位,全年積壓訂單成長達312億美元;三菱重工2025年前三季度訂單額同比增長12.6%至50291億日元。有機構稱,全球燃氣發電擴張受到燃氣輪機產能的制約,燃氣輪機製造商的積壓訂單已普遍排至2030年。GE Vernova、西門子能源和三菱重工佔據了在建燃氣發電市場75%以上的份額。

我們認為國內企業在核心零部件及整機領域加速國產替代,具備技術壁壘和全球供應鏈佈局的企業將優先受益。建議關注整機龍頭及核心零部件供應商,比如應流股份(603308)、豪邁科技(002595)、振江股份(603507)、傑瑞股份(002353)、東方電氣(600875)以及上海電氣(601727)。

撰稿: 李曉然研究分析員
電話:
22776535

電郵地址:
margaretli@phillip.com.hk
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