The Report is produced in Chinese only.
新增貸款破2萬億 房貸政策料再度收緊 自2016年10月中國政府於多個城市實行了房地產緊縮措施,如限價,限購,限貸等,中國房地產市場價格的上升趨勢開始有所放緩。 縱使價格上升幅有所放緩,房地產調控政策仍然繼續,顯示中央政府壓抑房地產市場的決心。 北京、上海、深圳、南京和合肥等城市均曾表態要控制房價過快上漲,維護樓市健康穩定。 因此,農曆新年過後,內地多個城市如北京、廣州、青島、大連、珠海等,開始實行房貸收緊政策,首套房的利率全面或部分調整為9折,而杭州部份首套房利率已提升至95折,北京的二套房按揭最長期限亦從30年縮短至25年,以維護樓市健康穩定。 事實上,人行近日公佈的數據顯示,2017年1月新增貸款規模達2.03萬億元人民幣,為史上第二個新增超2萬億元的月份,當中新增住戶貸款增加7,521億元,短期貸款增加1,229億元,中長期貸款增加6,293億元。 鑑於中央政府的房地產調控政策,我們預料商業銀行將須嚴格控制今年第一季新增貸款,將對房地產銷售帶來不利的影響。 政府除了於某些城市實施禁止借貸投地政策外,近日政府亦開始禁止私募資產管理計劃投資於16個熱點城市的住宅房地產,該限制將削弱開發商的融資渠道,增加其現金流壓力。 因此,我們推薦龍光地產(3380.HK)和深圳控股(604.HK),它們為聚焦於深圳的發展商,根據深圳政府數字,深圳常住人口超過1000萬,外省人口亦持續流入深圳,住房自有率卻僅34%,鑑於其房屋供應嚴重不足,我們預料深圳房價將能受惠於剛性需求,持續強勁。 |
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