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汽車國策提升小排量汽車需求

國務院常務會議決定,從2015年10月1日到2016年12月31日,對購買1.6升及以下排量乘用車實施減半徵收車輛購置稅的優惠政策,我們認為這一政策能夠有效提升小排量汽車需求,並且能調結構促內需。

我們認為,政策出臺的背景:首先是為了提振中國低迷的汽車市場,2015年,中國乘用車市場出現明顯下滑,從5月開始,已經連續4個月出現負增長。轎車更是從去年第四季度開始同比下滑,廠家進行價格戰的壓力非常大,如果任其持續下去,形勢是嚴峻的。而汽車產業對國民經濟的影響正在日益加深,目前,汽車工業的總產值已經占到了中國GDP的十分之一強,汽車產業鏈覆蓋面廣,包括鋼鐵,有色,橡膠,機械,化工,電子,石油,還包括下游的汽車服務,後市場,交通物流,旅遊業。對相關行業的就業拉動也非常明顯。我們看到最近經濟數據的出臺,pmi,工業經濟增加值都不樂觀,汽車業的低迷起到很大的作用。所以說,看似促進汽車業,實際上是為了拉動消費,進而拉動經濟。

1.6升及以下的小排量乘用車的消費人群對售價較為敏感,我們認為政策的實施將會有效的刺激這部分人群的消費需求。

具體到各個車企來看,1.6升及以下車型占比最高的是長安鈴木,廣汽菲亞特,100%,全部都是小型車。

第二梯隊有上汽通用五菱80%,吉利汽車,北京汽車89%(自主品牌),長城汽車90%,長安汽車,江淮汽車81%,奇瑞,比亞迪70%。

第三層:東風集團51%(東風標誌雪鐵龍71%,東風日產59%,東本2%)北京現代67%,廣汽集團(廣豐41%,廣本30%)。

上市公司建議關注長城汽車,比亞迪,吉利汽車,廣汽集團。

撰稿: 章晶研究分析員
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