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新能源公交車推廣新政利好行業龍頭

事件:三月中旬,中國交通部發佈了《關於加快推進新能源汽車在交通運輸行業推廣應用的實施意見》,提出到2020年,在城市公交,出租汽車和城市物流配送等領域的總量達到30萬輛:其中,新能源城市公交車達到20萬輛,新能源出租汽車和城市物流配送車輛達到10萬輛。

點評:我們認為此次政策實施後,國內新能源公交車生產商將迎來需求的大幅增長。目前中國的公交車保有量大約50萬輛左右,截止2014年底,新能源公交車的保有量預計在2萬-3萬輛(媒體報導數據)。而《實施意見》指出的到2020年,新能源公交車的保有量要達到20萬輛。

這也意味著,在接下來的五年裏,年均新能源公交車的銷量將達到3.5萬輛,相當於2014年中國前50家客車企業總銷量1.6萬輛的兩倍多。

我們認為此次政策的出臺,也顯示了政府對城市霧霾等環境污染現象的治理力度加大。《實施意見》規定在公交都市創建城市中,新增或更新公交、出租和城市物流配送車輛中新能源車占比不低於30%,提高幅度顯著。在京津冀地區,這一比例將不低於35%,新能源車推廣成為國家治理區域空氣污染問題重要手段之一。

此外,在新能源公交和出租車等的購買、使用和配套設施建設上《實施意見》也明確提出政府將給予政策支援,提升交通運輸企業購買使用新能源汽車的主動性,另一方面將建立行業規範標準和創新推廣應用模式,實現新能源汽車在交通運輸行業的市場化運行和可持續發展。我們建議投資者可重點關注新能源客車行業的龍頭企業,比如A股的宇通客車和H股的比亞迪。

撰稿: 章晶研究分析員
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