The Report is produced in Chinese only.
內房板塊重新估值,關注優質財務狀況及地儲企業 內房行業今年受到嚴監管及去槓桿政策影響,地產開發商各項融資渠道明顯收緊,我們預計,這將促使企業加快對銷售回款的依賴,以支持發展資金上的需求。而事實上,較有實力的內房企業如時代,可銷售資源均足以應付未來數年的發展。 在目前中美貿易戰之下,我們相信,中國政府會更重視內需經濟的發展,而透過棚改及限制內房發債集資等措施,僅為旨在能讓房產發展減速,以助未來更為穩健的發展,故此,我們並不預期內房資金鍊斷裂會在短期內被大規模引爆,並觸發行業及金融市場危機,反而建議投資者可在板塊估值重整時期,留意資產負債水平較為穩健、融資較容易以及土地儲備資源豐富的企業投資機會。 我們推薦中國海外發展(0688)、華潤置地(1109)、龍湖集團(0960)及時代中國(1233)。當中時代中國在9個城市(廣州、東莞、惠州、珠海、長沙、清遠、佛山、中山及江門)擁有土地儲備1694萬平方米,足以支持今後3至5年的發展,當中大灣區地儲佔比達57%,有望受惠於即將公佈的大灣區政策。目前未納入土地儲備的城市更新項目數量有68個,總用地面積約為700萬平方米,預計可轉化土地儲備面積約1920萬平方米,足夠未來10年發展之用。 |
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