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整體車市遇冷下關注結構性機會

中國汽車行業七月份的汽車銷售數據出爐,汽車整體銷量按年下滑7.1%至150萬輛,跌幅較五月的-0.4%和六月的-2.3%進一步擴大。按月跌幅也擴大至16%。七月是今年第五次出現銷量較去年同期下滑的月份。

其中,乘用車銷量同比減少6.6%,至126.8萬輛,商用車銷量依舊低迷,同比下滑10%,為23.4萬輛。

乘用車細分子行業中,僅SUV繼續保持34%的火熱增長,其餘類別盡墨。轎車需求疲態盡顯,同比下滑近兩成。七月SUV銷量已占乘用車總銷量的31%,我們認為後續增長空間將逐步受限,雖然SUV的消費熱度還沒消散,但部分汽車廠家將在近期感受到激烈的市場競爭對其產品盈利能力的擠壓。只有那些憑藉自身實力,不斷推出受市場歡迎的SUV新品的那些廠商才有可能安然渡過這輪汽車“熊市”,建議關注相關的上市公司如江淮汽車,吉利汽車,長安汽車B和廣汽集團。

慘淡車市中的另一個亮點是新能源汽車的銷量繼續保持井噴狀態。七月的新能源汽車銷量同比繼續飆升3.3倍,至1.69萬輛。低基數和國家對新能源車產業的大力扶持是兩個重要原因,新能源生產商多年來的市場培育也功不可沒。比亞迪汽車是可以關注的個股之一,可趁低吸納。

考慮到股市財富效應消失和宏觀經濟疲弱,今年中國車市實際需求不振已成定局,全年汽車整體銷量有可能出現倒退。我們建議投資者關注局部細分市場的結構性機會,重點領域還是SUV和新能源車。

撰稿: 章晶(研究分析員)
電話:
+86 21 63512937-104

電郵地址:
zhangjing@phillip.com.cn
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