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大灣區政策及調控口風放鬆利內房市場反彈 留意擁有灣區豐富地儲股投資機遇

《粵港澳大灣區發展規劃綱要》已正式出台,《綱要》列出各城市的角色,並強調主要城市之間的連接及合作,透過核心城市的優點,大灣區將定位為金融及創新中心。我們預計,隨著連接加強、人口增長加快,以及居民收入上升,將帶動大灣區消費及住屋需求,當中地產行業料將受惠。

與此同時,內地經濟受到中美貿易戰等因素影響,下行壓力加大,中國政府正加大力度推出更多包括減稅等寬鬆政策,早前國務院政府工作報告對內房調控的論述也較往年為簡約,內容上未提及「房住不炒」及「遏制房價上漲」,我們認為,這意味目前因城施政的調控思路將持續,後續地方政策較擁有更大的靈活性及調節空間,整體內房市場有望能到支持。

我們建議可以關注擁有93%大灣區地儲的時代中國(1233),其剛公佈較市場預期為佳的2018財年業績,收入按年增49%至344億元人民幣(下同),核心淨利潤增66%至42億元。該公司管理層具有較強的執行力,土地儲備充足達1850萬平方米,預計未來3年盈利及銷售均能保持較高增長,主要受惠於持續推進的城該項目,期內將會轉換約1080萬平方米,市值約2000億元。

撰稿: 顧慧宇研究分析員
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